Update 17-10-2020: Added a figure for the Giro (Sicily only) too. This cycling season was disrupted abruptly by Covid-19 a.k.a. the coronavirus. The misery started February 27, 2020 when the UAE Tour was canceled after the fifth stage. Riders where quarantined in the desert, some longer than others. In the end the teams Cofidis, Groupama-FDJ and Gazprom-Rusvelo were able to leave the UAE on March 8. Fortunately, Ramon Sinkeldam and Arnaud Demare had a a Playstation that was smuggled into the hotel by Bas Tietema.
It has been quite a while since the last analysis and by now we are more than half way the Tour de France 2019. One of the most interesting Tour in years if you ask me. Julian Alaphilippe in yellow, no truly dominant team and many surprising stages. The past four stages took place in the Pyrenees. In this post we will take a look at the past mountain stages and their relative difficulties.
Shame on me. Being one day late with the Zweeler prediction of the biggest cycling event of the year. The first stage is already finished, but - scout’s honor - I did not use those results when making the predictions below. Do not forget out to check out our Tour de France race page. The predictions for the Tour de France can be found in Table 1 and are based on Zweeler game points (so you do not see e.
The Tour de Suisse is, just like the Dauphiné, an important part of the Tour de France preparation of many riders. Below you can find the Zweeler poule predictions for the Tour de Suisse, but together with these predictions I discovered quite an insensitivity of the algorithm towards more mountain stages. As a consequence, the top 3 consists of sprinters, whereas there is only one true sprint opportunity.
The Critérium du Dauphiné is for many cyclists a very important step in their preparation for the Tour de France. Because of that a lot of big names appear at the start. However, you never really know who will seriously race for the GC. Do not forget out to check out our Critérium du Dauphiné race page. The predictions for the Critérium du Dauphiné can be found in Table 1 and are based on Zweeler game points (so you do not see e.
The Tour of Norway is going to be an interesting one. First of all, the line-up is great. Not only the Norwegian suspects (Hagen, Halvorsen, and Kristoff) are there, but for example also Luis León Sanchez, Alvaro Hodeg, Tim Wellens and Danny van Poppel show up at the start. The stages are quite ‘sprinter-friendly’, but the teams consist of six riders. Hence, it will not be that easy to control the race.
This is one of the times I truely deviated from my plan. There is a lot of work to do with the prediction algorithms, but instead of focusing I made a small app that can be used to visualize rider and team preparations for the Giro d’Italia. Talking about the Giro, did you already see our statistics on the Giro d’Italia race page? Before we continue there are 2 important things:
It’s a busy time for cycling fans. The Giro and Tour of California just started and today the 65th 4 Jours de Dunkerque starts as well. This HC race has quite some competition from the aforementioned races, but still the startlist looks very interesting with e.g. Bryan Coquard, Christophe Laporte, André Greipel and Dylan Groenewegen. It’s also great to see Niki Terpstra on a bike again after his crash in the Ronde van Vlaanderen.
The 14th Amgen Tour of California starts off today. This event runs at the same time as the Giro d’Italia, but it is definitely worth your attention as well. The startlist is interesting. Despite the fact that there is only one true sprint stage there are quite some sprinters that decided to show up. Among others: Sagan, Jakobsen and Halvorsen. Especially the short stage on Friday, May 17 will be interesting with two tough climbs before the finish on Mount Baldy (HC).
The 102nd Giro d’Italia starts tomorrow (May 11) with a short time trial of 8 kilometers in Bologna. The last 2.1 kilometers of the time trial is a serious climb of 9.7% on average and stretches of maximum 16%. Do not forget out to check out our Giro d’Italia race page. Table 1 show the predictions for the Giro d’Italia Zweeler poule. The predictions come with the usual disclaimer: